Why Simple Frameworks Beat Complex Models
Ingrid Koskinen has spent twelve years analyzing Australian companies for institutional investors. She's seen every fancy model and complex valuation method. Most of them don't work better than disciplined fundamentals.
"The analysts who consistently get it right aren't using proprietary algorithms," she explains. "They're asking basic questions relentlessly and tracking answers over time. Does this company do what it says? Are fundamentals improving or deteriorating? Is management honest about challenges?"
Her approach focuses on pattern recognition rather than prediction. Companies that consistently deliver on guidance tend to keep doing so. Those that miss targets repeatedly usually have structural issues no amount of optimism will fix.